IF ONE ADMITS, as historians do, that great men lead humanity to the attainment of certain ends, such as the aggrandisement of Russia or of France, or the balance of power, or the diffusion of the ideas of the revolution, or of general progress, or anything else you like, it becomes impossible to explain the phenomena of history apart from the conceptions of chance and genius.
如果历史学家承认，伟大人物引导人类实现某些目标，如俄罗斯或法国的强大，或是权力平衡，或是革命思想的传播，或是普遍进步，或是其他任何你喜欢的东西，那么除了偶然和天才的概念，无法解释历史现象。

If the object of the European wars of the beginning of this century had been the aggrandisement of Russia, that object might have been attained without any of the preceding wars, and without invasion of foreign territory.
如果欧洲开头的战争的目标是俄罗斯的扩张，那个目标可以在没有之前的战争，也没有入侵外国领土的情况下实现。

If the object were the aggrandisement of France, that aim might have been attained apart from the revolution and the empire. —
如果目标是法国的强大，那个目标可以在没有革命和帝国的情况下实现。 —

If the object were the diffusion of ideas, the printing of books would have attained that object much more effectually than soldiers. —
如果目标是思想的传播，印刷书籍比士兵更有效地实现那个目标。 —

If the object were the progress of civilisation, one may very readily assume that there are other more effectual means of diffusing civilisation than the slaughter of men and the destruction of their property.
如果目标是文明的进步，很容易假设有其他更有效的手段来推动文明，而不是屠杀和破坏人们的财产。

Why did it come to pass in this way and no other? Because it happened so. —
为什么事情会以这种方式而不是其他方式发生？因为偶然如此。 —

“Chance created the position; genius took advantage of it,” says history.
历史说：“偶然创造了这个局面；天才利用了它。”

But what is chance? What is genius?
但是什么是偶然？什么是天才？

The words chance and genius mean nothing actually existing, and so cannot be defined. —
偶然和天才这些词在现实中没有确切的存在，因此无法定义。 —

These words merely denote a certain stage in the comprehension of phenomena. —
这些词只是指现象理解的某个阶段。 —

I do not know how some phenomenon is brought about; I believe that I cannot know; —
我不知道某个现象是如何发生的；我相信我无法知道； —

consequently I do not want to know and talk of chance. —
因此，我不想知道，也不谈论偶然。 —

I see a force producing an effect out of proportion with the average effect of human powers; —
我看到一种力量产生了与人类力量平均效果不成比例的作用； —

I do not understand how this is brought about, and I talk about genius.
我不明白这是如何发生的，于是我谈论天才。

To a flock of sheep the sheep who is every evening driven by the shepherd into a special pen to feed, and becomes twice as fat as the rest, must seem to be a genius. —
对一群羊来说，每天晚上被牧羊人赶进一个特别的栏圈吃饲料，比其他羊长胖两倍，这只羊一定会被认为是天才。 —

And the circumstance that every evening that sheep does not come into the common fold, but into a special pen full of oats, and that that same sheep grows fat and is killed for mutton, must present itself to the minds of the other sheep as a singular conjunction of genius with a whole series of exceptional chances.
而每天晚上，这只羊不去普通的圈舍，而是去一个装满燕麦的特殊围栏，这只羊长胖后会被宰杀做成羊肉，这个情况在其他羊的眼中可能被看作是天才的奇特结合和一系列异常的机会。

But the sheep need only cease to assume that all that is done to them is with a view to the attainment of their sheepish ends; —
但是羊只需停止假设所有对它们的行为都是为了达到它们羊一般的目的; —

they need only admit that the events that occur to them may have ends beyond their ken, and they will at once see a unity and a coherence in what happens with the fatted sheep. —
它们只需承认发生在它们身上的事件可能有其他它们不了解的目的，它们就会立刻看到在胖羊身上发生的事情的统一性和连贯性。 —

Even though they will not know for what end he is fattened, at least they will know that all what happens to him does not happen by chance, and they will have no need to resort to the conception of chance, nor to the conception of genius.
即使它们不知道它是被肥育出来的目的是什么，至少它们会知道发生在它身上的事情并非偶然，它们就不需要采用机会或天才的概念。

It is only by renouncing all claims to knowledge of an immediate comprehensible aim, and acknowledging the final aim to be beyond our ken, that we see a consistent whole in the life of historical persons. —
只有放弃对即刻可理解的目的的所有要求，并承认最终目的超出我们能力的范畴，我们才能在历史人物的生活中看到一个一致的整体。 —

The cause is then revealed to us of that effect produced by them out of proportion with the common powers of humanity; —
这样我们就能揭示出他们所产生的效果与人类普通力量不相称的原因; —

and we have no need of the words chance and genius.
我们不再需要用机会和天才这些词语了。

We have only to admit that the object of the convulsions of the European nations is beyond our knowledge, and that we know only the facts, consisting mainly of murders committed at first in France, then in Italy, then in Africa, in Prussia, in Austria, in Spain, and in Russia, and that the movements from west to east and from east to west constitute the essence and end of those events, and we shall not need to see something exceptional—genius—in the characters of Napoleon and of Alexander, and shall indeed be unable to conceive of those persons as being in any way different from everybody else. —
我们只需要承认欧洲民族动荡的目的是我们无法去了解的，我们只了解事实，主要是最初在法国、然后在意大利、非洲、普鲁士、奥地利、西班牙和俄罗斯发生的谋杀案，从西向东和从东向西的运动构成了这些事件的实质和目标，我们不需要将拿破仑和亚历山大的品格视为与其他人有所不同，并且实际上无法把他们与其他人有任何不同之处联系起来。 —

And far from having to explain as chance those petty events, which made those men what they were, it will be clear to us that all those petty details were inevitable.
而不需要解释为什么那些微不足道的事件塑造了这些人的性格，对我们来说，很明显所有这些细枝末节都是不可避免的。

When we give up all claim to a knowledge of the final end, we shall clearly perceive that just as we cannot invent any flower or seed more truly appropriate to a plant than those it produces, so we cannot imagine any two persons, with all their past in such complete congruity down to the smallest details, with the part they were destined to play.
当我们放弃对最终结果的了解时，我们会清楚地看到，正如我们无法创造出比植物本身更适合的花朵或种子一样，我们也无法想象出任何两个人，无论是从最小的细节还是他们注定要扮演的角色来看，他们的过去都是如此完全契合。